The difficulty of option ‘c’

Can any journalist become a science journalist? More specifically, can any journalist become a science journalist without understanding the methods of scientific practice and administration? This is not a trivial question because not all the methods of science can be discovered or discerned from the corresponding ‘first principles’. That is, common sense and intelligence alone cannot consummate your transformation; you must access new information that you cannot derive through inductive reasoning.

For example, how would you treat the following statement: “Scientists prove that X causes Y”?

a. You could take the statement at face-value

b. You could probe how and why scientists proved that X causes Y

c. You could interrogate the claim that X causes Y, or

d. You could, of course, ignore it.

(Option (d) is the way to go for claims in the popular as well as scientific literature of the type “Scientists prove that coffee/wine/chocolate cause your heart to strengthen/weaken/etc.” unless the story you’re working on concerns the meta-narrative of these studies.)

Any way, choosing between (a), (b) and (c) is not easy, often because which option you pick depends on how much you know about how the modern scientific industry works. For example, a non-science journalist is likely to go with (a) and/or (b) because, first, they typically believe that the act of proving something is a singular event, localised in time and space, with no room for disagreement.

This is after all the picture of proof-making that ill-informed supporters of science (arguably more than even supporters of the ideal of scientism) harbour: “Scientists have proved that X causes Y, so that’s that,” in the service of silencing inconvenient claims like “human activities aren’t causing Earth’s surface to heat up” or like “climate geoengineering is bad”. I believe that anthropogenic global warming is real and that we need to consider stratospheric aerosol injections but flattening the proof-making exercise threatens to marginalise disagreements among scientists themselves, such as about the extent of warming or about the long-term effects on biodiversity.

The second reason (a) and (b) type stories are more common, but especially (a), follows from this perspective of proofs: the view that scientists are authorities, and we are not qualified to question them. As it happens, most of us will never be qualified enough, but question them we can thanks to four axioms.

First, science being deployed for the public good must be well understood in much the same way a drug that has been tested for efficacy must also be exculpated of deleterious side-effects.

Second, journalists don’t need to critique the choice of reagents, animal models, numerical methods or apparatus design to be able to uncover loopholes, inconsistencies and/or shortcomings. Instead, that oppositional role is easily performed by independent scientists whose comments a journalist can invite on the study.

Third, science is nothing without the humans that practice it, and most of the more accessible stories of science (not news reports) are really stories of the humans practising the science.

Fourth, organised science – hot take: like organised religion – is a human endeavour tied up with human structures, human politics and human foibles, which means as much of what we identify as science lies in the discovery of scientific knowledge as in the way we fund, organise, disseminate and preserve that knowledge.

These four allowances together imply that a science journalist is not a journalist familiar with advanced mathematics or who can perform a tricky experiment but is a journalist trained to write about science without requiring such knowledge.

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Anyone familiar with India will recognise that these two principal barriers – a limited understanding of proof-making and the view of scientists as authority figures – to becoming a good science journalist are practically seeded by the inadequate school-level education system. But they are also furthered by India’s prevailing political climate, especially in the way a highly polarised society undermines the role of expertise.

Some people will tell you that you can’t question highly trained scientists because you are not a highly trained scientist but others will say you’re entitled to question everything as a thinking, reasoning, socially engaged global citizen.

As it happens, these aren’t opposing points of view. It’s just that the left and the right have broken the idea of expertise into two pieces, taking one each for themselves, such that the political left is often comfortable with questioning facts like grinding bricks to unusable dust while the political right will treat all bricks the same irrespective of the quality of clay; the leftist will subsequently insist that quality control is all-important whereas the rightist will champion the virtues of pragmatism.

In this fracas to deprive expertise either of authority or of critique, or sometimes both, the expert becomes deconstructed to the point of nonexistence. As a result, the effective performance of science journalism, instead of trying to pander equally to the left’s and the right’s respective conceptions of the expert, converges on the attempt to reconstruct expertise as it should be: interrogated without undermining it, considered without elevating it.

Obviously, this is easier said, and more enjoyably said, than done.

The climate and the A.I.

A few days ago, the New York Times and other major international publications sounded the alarm over a new study that claimed various coastal cities around the world would be underwater to different degrees by 2050. However, something seemed off; it couldn’t have been straightforward for the authors of the study to plot how much the sea-level rise would affect India’s coastal settlements. Specifically, the numbers required to calculate how many people in a city would be underwater aren’t readily available in India, if at all they do exist. Without this bit of information, it’s easy to disproportionately over- or underestimate certain outcomes for India on the basis of simulations and models. And earlier this evening, as if on cue, this thread appeared:

This post isn’t a declaration of smugness (although it is tempting) but to turn your attention to one of Palanichamy’s tweets in the thread:

One of the biggest differences between the developed and the developing worlds is clean, reliable, accessible data. There’s a reason USAfacts.org exists whereas in India, data discovery is as painstaking a part of the journalistic process as is reporting on it and getting the report published. Government records are fairly recent. They’re not always available at the same location on the web (data.gov.in has been remedying this to some extent). They’re often incomplete or not machine-readable. Every so often, the government doesn’t even publish the data – or changes how it’s obtained, rendering the latest dataset incompatible with previous versions.

This is why attempts to model Indian situations and similar situations in significantly different parts of the world (i.e. developed and developing, not India and, say, Mexico) in the same study are likely to deviate from reality: the authors might have extrapolated the data for the Indian situation using methods derived from non-native datasets. According to Palanichamy, the sea-level rise study took AI’s help for this – and herein lies the rub. With this study itself as an example, there are only going to be more – and potentially more sensational – efforts to determine the effects of continued global heating on coastal assets, whether cities or factories, paralleling greater investments to deal with the consequences.

In this scenario, AI, and algorithms in general, will only play a more prominent part in determining how, when and where our attention and money should be spent, and controlling the extent to which people think scientists’ predictions and reality are in agreement. Obviously the deeper problem here lies with the entities responsible for collecting and publishing the data – and aren’t doing so – but given how the climate crisis is forcing the world’s governments to rapidly globalise their action plans, the developing world needs to inculcate the courage and clarity to slow down, and scrutinise the AI and other tools scientists use to offer their recommendations.

It’s not a straightforward road from having the data to knowing what it implies for a city in India, a city in Australia and a city in Canada.

Climatic fates in the ooze

While governments scramble to provide the laziest climate-change commitments ahead of the UN conference in Paris later this year, the world is being honed to confront how life about land will change as the atmosphere and surface and heat up. But for another world – a world that has often shown up its terran counterpart in sheer complexity – scientists are far from understanding how things will change over the next 85 years.

Climatologists and oceanographers were only recently able to provide a rounded explanation for why the rate of global warming slowed in the late 1990s – and into the 2010s: because the Pacific Ocean was absorbing heat from the lower atmosphere, and then palming it off to the Indian Ocean. But soon after the announcement of that discovery, another team from the US armed with NASA data said that the rate of warming hadn’t slowed at all and that it seemed that way thanks to some statistical anomalies.

Irrespective of which side is right, the bottomline is that our understanding of the oceans’ impact on climate change is poorly understood. And although it hasn’t been for want of trying, a new study in the journal Geology presents the world’s first map of what rests on the oceans’ floors – a map that’s been updated comprehensively for the first time since the 1970s.

The ocean floor is in effect a graveyard of all the undersea creatures that have ever lived, but the study’s significance for tracking climate-change lies with the smallest of those creatures – the tiny plankton, inhabitants of the bottommost rungs of the oceanic food chain. Their population on the surface and pelagic zones of the oceans increases with the abundance of silica and carbon, and when they die or the animals that eat them die, the float into the abyss – taking along a bit of carbon with them. This is the deceptively simple mechanism called the biological pump that allows the world’s larger waterbodies to absorb carbon dioxide from Earth’s atmosphere.

Digital map of major lithologies of seafloor sediments in world’s ocean basins. Source: doi: 10.1130/G36883.1
Digital map of major lithologies of seafloor sediments in world’s ocean basins. Source: doi: 10.1130/G36883.1

The new map, made by scientists from the University of Sydney and the Australian Technology Park, shows that contrary to popular beliefs, the oceanic basins are not settled by broad bands of sediments as much as there are pockets of them, varying in size and abundance due to a variety of surface characteristics and with the availability of certain minerals.

A photomontage of plankton. Credit: Kils/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA
A photomontage of plankton. Credit: Kils/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

For example, diatom ooze – not watery eidolons of muck sticking to the underside of your shoe but crystalline formations composed of minerals and the remains of calcium- and silica-based plankton called diatoms – is visible in widespread patches (of light-green in the map) throughout the Southern Ocean, between 60º and 70º S.

The ooze typically forms in the 0.8-8º C range at depths of 3.3-4.8 km, and is abundant in the new map where the temperatures range from 0.9º to 5.7º C. Before this map came along, oceanographers – as well as climatologists – had assumed these deposits to be lying in continuous belts, like large undersea continents. But together with the uncertainty in data about the pace and quanta of warming, scientists had been grappling with a shifting image of climate change’s effects on the oceans.

The locations of diatom ooze also contribute to a longstanding debate about if the ooze settles directly below the largest diatom populations. According to the Australian study’s authors, “Diatom ooze is most common below waters with very low diatom chlorophyll concentration, forming prominent zones between 50° S and 60° S in the Australian-Antarctic and the Bellinghausen basins”. The debate’s origins lie in the common use of diatoms to adjudicate water quality: some species proliferate only in clean water, some in polluted water, and there many species of them differentiated by other preferred environments – saline, acidic, warm, etc.

The relative abundance of one species of plankton over the other could, for example, become a reliable indicator of another property of the water that scientists have had trouble measuring: acidity. The dropping pH levels in the oceans are – or could be – a result of dissolving carbon dioxide. While some may view the oceans as great benefactors for offsetting the pace of warming by just a little bit, the net effect for Earth has continued to be negative: acidic waters dissolve the shells of molluscs faster and could drive populations of fishes away from where humans have set up fisheries.

Ocean acidification’s overall effect on the global economy could be a loss of $1 trillion per year by 2100, a UN report has estimated – even as a report in the ICES Journal of Marine Science found that 465 studies published between 1993 and 2014 sported a variety of methodological failures that compromised their findings – all of precise levels of acidity. The bottomline, as with scientists’ estimates of the rate of pelagic warming, is that we know that the oceans are acidifying but are unsure of by how much.

The new map thus proves useful to assess how different kinds of ooze got where they are and their implications for how the world around them is changing. For example, as the paper states, “diatom oozes are absent below high diatom chlorophyll areas near continents”, where sediments derived from the erosion of rocks provides a lot of nutrients to the oceans’ surfaces – in effect describing how a warming Earth posits a continuum of implications for contiguous biospheres.

The Wire
August 13, 2015